Europe is racing to rebuild its military strength as Russia threatens the continent and America demands that allies carry more of the security burden. But DIIS warns that governments risk paying for rearmament by hollowing out development assistance just as Washington is retreating from that field.

Washington is pushing Europe towards a security order in which America carries less of the burden. Geopolitical Futures sees US negotiations with Moscow over Ukraine and demands for Europeans to defend themselves as parts of the same strategic shift – responsibility is moving back towards regional powers.

Europe is spending more on defence, but RAND warns that money alone will not make the continent ready for the threats already hitting it. Russian sabotage, hybrid pressure and attacks on critical infrastructure are exposing weak spots far beyond the battlefield.

Europe has spent 15 years pretending it has a common defence procurement market. In reality, most governments ignored the rules, protected national champions and kept buying heavily from outside the EU, especially the United States.

France and Sweden are moving far beyond a one-off arms deal. Stockholm’s €4.3bn order for four French-built Luleå-class frigates is becoming the anchor for a much broader defence partnership covering missiles, air defence, nuclear deterrence and possibly future combat aircraft.

NATO is preparing for war with Russia, but CEPA warns that one of the Alliance’s biggest vulnerabilities sits outside the traditional battlefield. Europe’s ports, railways, energy grids, undersea cables, pipelines, satellite links and digital networks are now part of deterrence – and too many remain exposed.

Greece is no longer just buying French weapons. The ISDP brief argues that Athens is becoming a test case for Europe’s defence pillar – a country using French arms, French political guarantees and deeper industrial cooperation to build deterrence in the Eastern Mediterranean.